No surprises

The special votes have now been counted. The ODT sticks with a fairly First Past the Post frame, noting that the gap between Butler and Weatherall closed from 57 to 43 votes.

However, I’d maintain that that is not the most interesting part of the special votes, and Butler is not the person who could gain most from a re-count.

  • The special votes strongly favoured the young candidates. With postal voting, perhaps it is the influence of younger people overseas, but MacTavish and Hawkins each gained 28 first preference votes, followed by Thomson with another 22, Vandervis and Acklin with 17, Butcher and Clark on 14, then Butler with an extra 13.
  • The biggest change in the specials is at Hawkins’ elimination. He now loses out to Butler by 28 votes, whereas previously it had been 60. Unfortunately, because Butler was eliminated at the last step, it is not possible to tell where her votes would have been redistributed, or if it would have made a difference. One would assume that her supporters might not be casting their preferences for Weatherall and Hudson, however, but whether enough would have put Hawkins down as a later preference is anyone’s guess.

I’ve updated the graph, but it really is not very different from the last version (Click for larger version).

I’ve also zoomed in a bit on the final stretch, and you can really see the dog fight for the last few seats.


About James

I'm a scientist. Sometimes I get distracted.
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